With every episode of Arrow’s fourth season, the mystery of who’s in the grave has been rolling around in the back of our heads, getting increasingly more frustrating with every passing week.

At first, the writers were hinting at Felicity Smoak’s possible demise. As of episode 4×10, we have clear confirmation that she’s not the one six-feet-under. Obviously. And also, THANK GOD. The mystery is still up in the air, but we do know it’s someone close to Oliver, and someone who can drive Felicity to angrily demand that Oliver kill again. That leaves us with only a handful of grave candidates. Join us as we try and answer the ultimate Arrow question this season: who’s in the grave?



Laurel Lance/Black Canary

Arrow -- "Canaries" -- Image AR313A_0233b -- Pictured: Katie Cassidy as Laurel Lance / Black Canary -- Photo: Diyah Pera/The CW -- © 2015 The CW Network, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Diyah Pera/The CW

It’s not looking good for Laurel Lance. Not only is she no longer the love interest, she’s also clearly been downgraded from leading lady (hello, Felicity Smoak!) and she doesn’t seem to have that much to do every week. Honestly, Laurel lifts right out of most of the episodes, and her dialogue is usually unnecessary exposition or reaction lines. Even when she does get a storyline, it’s often ethically ambiguous in a way that doesn’t do her character any favors – like selfishly raising her sister from the dead despite knowing the consequences. One of my favorite Arrow bloggers has been calling a Laurel death from the start, and I’m sold. And, uh, maybe a little hopeful as well?

Odds: 90%

John Diggle

Arrow -- "Draw Back Your Bow" -- Image AR307b_0264b -- Pictured: David Ramsey as John Diggle -- Photo: Cate Cameron/The CW -- © 2014 The CW Network, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Cate Cameron/The CW

There’s no reason it would be Diggle in the grave. There’s also no reason it wouldn’t be Diggle. I honestly don’t think it’s him, just because of what a fan favorite David Ramsey’s character is. Plus, if Diggle dies, we lose Original Team Arrow, the OGs, and the true heart of the show. Fans would riot. Myself included. But Arrow has proven in the past that it’s not afraid to lose fan favorites (see: Sarah Lance, pre-resurrection), which makes John’s odds about 50/50. PLEASE DON’T LET IT BE HIM, is all I’m saying.

Odds: 50%

Thea Queen/Speedy


Oliver has two real lifelines: Thea and Felicity. They are his family, his center, and the two people he would do anything to protect. (We can argue that William, his son, is another one, but he’s also not in Oliver’s everyday life in the same way.) Oliver has lost his entire family and almost everyone he cares about. I truly think he will fall apart if he loses Thea as well. He looks pretty sad by that grave, but he’s not a blubbering mess. Killing Thea would be a cruel move, and it looks pretty unlikely based on how many times she has almost died this season already. Offing her at the end would feel like over-kill at this point. I suppose you never know with Arrow, but the odds are low.

Odds: 10%

Captain Lance


Fingers have been pointed at the police chief from the beginning, and I see why: he’s not really integral to the plot at this point, his character feels like it has run its course (how many more times can he flip-flop on how he feels about vigilantes?), and other than making out with the ever-delightful Donna Smoak, I don’t really care that much about his screen time. The only thing working in his favor is that he might not be a significant enough character to make Oliver close his eyes in pain or have Felicity angrily lashing out. Also, his death wouldn’t be that much of a shock, and I have a feeling this death is going to be intense. But he has been with us from the beginning, and fans have always connected with the gruff father. His chances of dying are still pretty good, though I’d be more worried if I were his daughter.

Odds: 70%

William (Oliver’s Son)


Look: it’s Arrow. Oliver had to choose which one of his girlfriends would get shot in the head. His father killed himself in front of him. His mother was stabbed in front of him. This show is not afraid to go there. But are they heartless enough to kill a 7-year-old kid? I don’t think so. That’s a level of sadism that even Arrow doesn’t seem capable of. Still, maybe the writers were feeling extra-cruel that day. I’d give it a 1% chance.

Odds: 1%

Who do you think is in the grave? Take the poll and if you think it’s someone else we haven’t included, let us know in the comments!